Final Score: Senators 2 - Lightning 4
Saturday, March 28, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET
Senators @ Lightning
NHL model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Model Prediction Through Season
| Stat | Senators | Lightning |
|---|---|---|
| All-time wins | 71 | 53 |
| Last 5 meetings | 3 | 2 |
| Average goals | 3.5 | 2.9 |
| Last meeting | 5 | 4 |
| Stat | Senators | Lightning |
|---|---|---|
| Games played | 72 | 71 |
| Avg goals scored | 3.4 | 3.7 |
| Avg goals conceded | 3.1 | 2.8 |
| Win percentage | 53% | 62% |
| Away win % / Home win % | 54% | 62% |
Recent Results
Senators
vs Pittsburgh Penguins
Mar 26, 2026 · Margin: -1 · Total: 7
3-4
@ Detroit Red Wings
Mar 24, 2026 · Margin: +1 · Total: 5
3-2
@ New York Rangers
Mar 23, 2026 · Margin: +1 · Total: 3
2-1
vs Toronto Maple Leafs
Mar 21, 2026 · Margin: +3 · Total: 7
5-2
vs New York Islanders
Mar 19, 2026 · Margin: +1 · Total: 5
3-2
@ Washington Capitals
Mar 18, 2026 · Margin: -3 · Total: 5
1-4
vs San Jose Sharks
Mar 15, 2026 · Margin: +3 · Total: 11
7-4
vs Anaheim Ducks
Mar 14, 2026 · Margin: +2 · Total: 2
2-0
vs Montreal Canadiens
Mar 11, 2026 · Margin: -1 · Total: 5
2-3
@ Vancouver Canucks
Mar 9, 2026 · Margin: +2 · Total: 2
2-0
Lightning
vs Seattle Kraken
Mar 26, 2026 · Margin: -1 · Total: 7
3-4
vs Minnesota Wild
Mar 24, 2026 · Margin: +3 · Total: 9
6-3
@ Calgary Flames
Mar 22, 2026 · Margin: -1 · Total: 7
3-4
@ Edmonton Oilers
Mar 21, 2026 · Margin: +3 · Total: 7
5-2
@ Vancouver Canucks
Mar 19, 2026 · Margin: +4 · Total: 8
6-2
@ Seattle Kraken
Mar 17, 2026 · Margin: +4 · Total: 8
6-2
vs Carolina Hurricanes
Mar 14, 2026 · Margin: -2 · Total: 6
2-4
vs Detroit Red Wings
Mar 12, 2026 · Margin: +3 · Total: 5
4-1
vs Columbus Blue Jackets
Mar 10, 2026 · Margin: -3 · Total: 7
2-5
@ Buffalo Sabres
Mar 8, 2026 · Margin: -1 · Total: 15
7-8