Senators @ Maple Leafs

NHL model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Final Score: Senators 3 - Maple Leafs 2
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
Ottawa
Senators
0-0 Rating 1514
Form: WLLLL
3 – 2
Model Probability
53%
47%
Projected margin: Toronto Maple Leafs +0.1
Toronto
Maple Leafs
1-1 Rating 1474
Form: LLLLW

Model Prediction Through Season

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Stat Senators Maple Leafs
All-time wins 89 89
Last 5 meetings 3 2
Average goals 2.9 2.9
Last meeting 3 1

Key Season Stats

Stat Senators Maple Leafs
Games played 0 2
Avg goals scored - 2.0
Avg goals conceded - 2.0
Win percentage - 50%
Away win % / Home win % - 50%