Lightning @ Maple Leafs

NHL model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Final Score: Lightning 0 - Maple Leafs 0
Saturday, December 19, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
Tampa Bay
Lightning
11-5 Rating 1554
Form: WLWWW
@
Model Probability
60%
40%
Projected margin: Tampa Bay Lightning +0.2
Toronto
Maple Leafs
8-10 Rating 1471
Form: LLWLL

Model Prediction Through Season

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Stat Lightning Maple Leafs
All-time wins 55 74
Last 5 meetings 2 3
Average goals 2.9 3.2
Last meeting 5 2

Key Season Stats

Stat Lightning Maple Leafs
Games played 16 18
Avg goals scored 3.8 3.6
Avg goals conceded 3.1 3.3
Win percentage 69% 44%
Away win % / Home win % 38% 40%