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Bundesliga
Sat, May 8, 2027 · 2:30 PM BST

Mainz vs Dortmund Prediction & Win Probability

Dortmund has a 48% chance to win.

2-1-1 · Rating 1768
Form: WLWDW
VS
4-0-0 · Rating 1916
Form: WWWWW
Model Probability
25%
48%
Draw 26%

Model Prediction Through Season

Season Impact

Dortmund

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now 17.1%91.3%3.4%<1%<1%
If Win 18.3%94.1%3.0%<1%<1%
If Draw 14.9%91.4%4.0%<1%<1%
If Lose 12.4%89.3%4.2%<1%<1%

Mainz

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now <1%13.7%8.8%3.9%<1%
If Win <1%18.1%10.7%2.2%<1%
If Draw <1%12.2%9.0%3.7%<1%
If Lose <1%10.3%7.8%4.4%1.0%

Season Form Coming Into This Game

MainzStatDortmund
4Games played4
2.5Avg goals scored2.2
1.5Avg goals conceded0.5
50% / 25% / 25%Win / Draw / Loss100% / 0% / 0%
0% Home win % / Away win % 100%

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
MainzStatDortmund
6All-time wins (33 meetings, 5 draws)22
2Last 5 meetings (0 draws)3
1.0Average goals1.9
Last meeting (2026-02-13): Dortmund 4–0 Mainz