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UEFA Nations League · League A · Group 3 · Round 1
Sat, Sep 26, 2026 ยท 7:45 PM BST

England vs Spain Prediction & Win Probability

Spain has a 40% chance to win, with a 30% chance of a draw.

Rating 1996 · World #4
Form: WLDWW
VS
Rating 2079 · World #1
Form: DWWWW
Model Probability
29%
40%
Draw 30%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 3 position, depending on this result

๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ England

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand30%50%17%3%
England win 59%33%7%<1%
Draw 30%51%17%2%
Spain win 9%62%24%5%

๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Spain

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand65%28%6%<1%
England win 36%50%13%1%
Draw 64%28%7%<1%
Spain win 87%11%2%<1%

League A ยท Group 3

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Spain 0 0 2079 65% 28% 6% <1%
England 0 0 1996 30% 50% 17% 3%
Croatia 0 0 1855 5% 19% 59% 17%
Czech Republic 0 0 1693 <1% 2% 18% 80%
Quarter-finals (1st, 2nd) Relegation play-off (3rd) Relegated to League B (4th)

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
EnglandStatSpain
7-2-1Won-Drawn-Lost7-3-0
2.3Avg goals scored1.9
1.2Avg goals conceded0.3
1996Rating2079
#4World rank#1

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
EnglandStatSpain
2Wins (6 meetings, 1 draw)3
1Last 5 meetings (1 draw)3
1.33Average goals1.67
Last meeting (Sun, Jul 14, 2024, Euro): Spain 2–1 England

Recent Results

๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ England

@ France
Sat, Jul 18, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 27%
6–4
vs Argentina
Wed, Jul 15, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 31%
1–2
@ Norway
Sat, Jul 11, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 56%
1–1
@ Mexico
Mon, Jul 6, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 50%
3–2
vs D.R. Congo
Wed, Jul 1, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 76%
2–1

๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Spain

vs Argentina
Sun, Jul 19, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 43%
0–0
@ France
Tue, Jul 14, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 36%
2–0
vs Belgium
Fri, Jul 10, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 57%
2–1
@ Portugal
Mon, Jul 6, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 48%
1–0
vs Austria
Thu, Jul 2, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 68%
3–0