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UEFA Nations League · League C · Group 4 · Round 1
Sat, Sep 26, 2026 ยท 5:00 PM BST

Iceland vs Estonia Prediction & Win Probability

Iceland has a 64% chance to win, with a 22% chance of a draw.

Rating 1581 · World #77
Form: LWDLL
VS
Rating 1410 · World #130
Form: WWLDL
Model Probability
64%
14%
Draw 22%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 4 position, depending on this result

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ธ Iceland

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand54%27%14%6%
Iceland win 62%26%10%2%
Draw 43%30%18%9%
Estonia win 30%26%25%20%

๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ช Estonia

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand6%15%27%52%
Iceland win 3%12%26%60%
Draw 8%17%28%47%
Estonia win 20%26%26%28%

League C ยท Group 4

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
– Iceland 0 0 1581 54% 27% 14% 6%
– Bulgaria 0 0 1514 25% 32% 27% 16%
– Luxembourg 0 0 1473 16% 26% 32% 26%
– Estonia 0 0 1410 6% 15% 27% 52%
Promoted to League B (1st) Promotion play-off (2nd) Ranking of 4th-placed teams (4th) Relegation play-off Relegated to League D

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
IcelandStatEstonia
3-1-6Won-Drawn-Lost2-2-6
1.8Avg goals scored0.7
2.0Avg goals conceded2.0
1581Rating1410
#77World rank#130

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
IcelandStatEstonia
1Wins (4 meetings, 3 draws)0
1Last 4 meetings (3 draws)0
0.75Average goals0.5
Last meeting (Sun, Jan 8, 2023, Friendly): Iceland 1–1 Estonia

Recent Results

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ธ Iceland

@ Ukraine
Sun, Nov 16, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 13%
0–2
@ Azerbaijan
Thu, Nov 13, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 49%
2–0
vs France
Mon, Oct 13, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 5%
2–2
vs Ukraine
Fri, Oct 10, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 19%
3–5
@ France
Tue, Sep 9, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 4%
1–2

๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ช Estonia

vs Lithuania
Tue, Jun 9, 2026 · Baltic Cup · Pre-match win chance 44%
1–0
vs Faroe Islands
Sat, Jun 6, 2026 · Baltic Cup · Pre-match win chance 44%
1–0
@ Rwanda
Mon, Mar 30, 2026 · Fifa Series · Pre-match win chance 27%
0–2
@ Kenya
Fri, Mar 27, 2026 · Fifa Series · Pre-match win chance 23%
1–1
@ Norway
Thu, Nov 13, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 5%
1–4