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UEFA Nations League · League C · Group 4 · Round 2
Tue, Sep 29, 2026 ยท 7:45 PM BST

Luxembourg vs Iceland Prediction & Win Probability

Iceland has a 44% chance to win, with a 30% chance of a draw.

Rating 1473 · World #100
Form: WWLLL
VS
Rating 1581 · World #77
Form: LWDLL
Model Probability
26%
44%
Draw 30%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 4 position, depending on this result

๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡บ Luxembourg

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand15%26%32%26%
Luxembourg win 34%31%23%12%
Draw 13%27%32%27%
Iceland win 5%23%37%34%

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ธ Iceland

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand54%26%14%6%
Luxembourg win 32%32%24%12%
Draw 51%28%15%6%
Iceland win 69%22%8%2%

League C ยท Group 4

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
– Iceland 0 0 1581 54% 26% 14% 6%
– Bulgaria 0 0 1514 25% 32% 27% 16%
– Luxembourg 0 0 1473 15% 26% 32% 26%
– Estonia 0 0 1410 6% 15% 26% 52%
Promoted to League B (1st) Promotion play-off (2nd) Ranking of 4th-placed teams (4th) Relegation play-off Relegated to League D

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
LuxembourgStatIceland
2-1-7Won-Drawn-Lost3-1-6
0.8Avg goals scored1.8
1.6Avg goals conceded2.0
1473Rating1581
#100World rank#77

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
LuxembourgStatIceland
1Wins (2 meetings, 1 draw)0
1Last 2 meetings (1 draw)0
2.0Average goals1.0
Last meeting (Fri, Oct 13, 2023, Euro): Iceland 1–1 Luxembourg

Recent Results

๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡บ Luxembourg

vs Malta
Tue, Mar 31, 2026 · Nations League · Pre-match win chance 62%
3–0
@ Malta
Thu, Mar 26, 2026 · Nations League · Pre-match win chance 48%
2–0
@ Northern Ireland
Mon, Nov 17, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 16%
0–1
vs Germany
Fri, Nov 14, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 4%
0–2
@ Slovakia
Mon, Oct 13, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 9%
0–2

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ธ Iceland

@ Ukraine
Sun, Nov 16, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 13%
0–2
@ Azerbaijan
Thu, Nov 13, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 49%
2–0
vs France
Mon, Oct 13, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 5%
2–2
vs Ukraine
Fri, Oct 10, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 19%
3–5
@ France
Tue, Sep 9, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 4%
1–2