โ† Home / UEFA Nations League / Matchups / Iceland vs Bulgaria
UEFA Nations League · League C · Group 4 · Round 3
Sat, Oct 3, 2026 ยท 5:00 PM BST

Iceland vs Bulgaria Prediction & Win Probability

Iceland has a 50% chance to win, with a 28% chance of a draw.

Rating 1581 · World #77
Form: LWDLL
VS
Rating 1514 · World #92
Form: WWWLL
Model Probability
50%
22%
Draw 28%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 4 position, depending on this result

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ธ Iceland

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand54%27%14%6%
Iceland win 69%21%8%2%
Draw 47%29%16%8%
Bulgaria win 26%36%26%12%

๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฌ Bulgaria

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand25%32%27%16%
Iceland win 12%34%34%21%
Draw 27%32%26%14%
Bulgaria win 51%29%14%6%

League C ยท Group 4

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
– Iceland 0 0 1581 54% 27% 14% 6%
– Bulgaria 0 0 1514 25% 32% 27% 16%
– Luxembourg 0 0 1473 16% 26% 32% 26%
– Estonia 0 0 1410 6% 15% 27% 52%
Promoted to League B (1st) Promotion play-off (2nd) Ranking of 4th-placed teams (4th) Relegation play-off Relegated to League D

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
IcelandStatBulgaria
3-1-6Won-Drawn-Lost3-0-7
1.8Avg goals scored1.6
2.0Avg goals conceded2.5
1581Rating1514
#77World rank#92

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
Iceland and Bulgaria haven't met since 2010.

Recent Results

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ธ Iceland

@ Ukraine
Sun, Nov 16, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 13%
0–2
@ Azerbaijan
Thu, Nov 13, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 49%
2–0
vs France
Mon, Oct 13, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 5%
2–2
vs Ukraine
Fri, Oct 10, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 19%
3–5
@ France
Tue, Sep 9, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 4%
1–2

๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฌ Bulgaria

@ Indonesia
Mon, Mar 30, 2026 · Fifa Series · Pre-match win chance 38%
1–0
@ Solomon Islands
Fri, Mar 27, 2026 · Fifa Series · Pre-match win chance 57%
10–2
vs Georgia
Tue, Nov 18, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 22%
2–1
@ Turkey
Sat, Nov 15, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 8%
0–2
@ Spain
Tue, Oct 14, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 2%
0–4