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UEFA Nations League · League C · Group 4 · Round 2
Tue, Sep 29, 2026 ยท 7:45 PM BST

Bulgaria vs Estonia Prediction & Win Probability

Bulgaria has a 55% chance to win, with a 26% chance of a draw.

Rating 1514 · World #92
Form: WWWLL
VS
Rating 1410 · World #130
Form: WWLDL
Model Probability
55%
19%
Draw 26%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 4 position, depending on this result

๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฌ Bulgaria

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand25%32%27%16%
Bulgaria win 33%36%25%6%
Draw 19%31%31%20%
Estonia win 11%22%30%37%

๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ช Estonia

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand6%15%27%52%
Bulgaria win 3%9%24%64%
Draw 7%17%29%47%
Estonia win 14%29%31%26%

League C ยท Group 4

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
– Iceland 0 0 1581 54% 27% 14% 6%
– Bulgaria 0 0 1514 25% 32% 27% 16%
– Luxembourg 0 0 1473 16% 26% 32% 26%
– Estonia 0 0 1410 6% 15% 27% 52%
Promoted to League B (1st) Promotion play-off (2nd) Ranking of 4th-placed teams (4th) Relegation play-off Relegated to League D

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
BulgariaStatEstonia
3-0-7Won-Drawn-Lost2-2-6
1.6Avg goals scored0.7
2.5Avg goals conceded2.0
1514Rating1410
#92World rank#130

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
Bulgaria and Estonia haven't met since 2010.

Recent Results

๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฌ Bulgaria

@ Indonesia
Mon, Mar 30, 2026 · Fifa Series · Pre-match win chance 38%
1–0
@ Solomon Islands
Fri, Mar 27, 2026 · Fifa Series · Pre-match win chance 57%
10–2
vs Georgia
Tue, Nov 18, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 22%
2–1
@ Turkey
Sat, Nov 15, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 8%
0–2
@ Spain
Tue, Oct 14, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 2%
0–4

๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ช Estonia

vs Lithuania
Tue, Jun 9, 2026 · Baltic Cup · Pre-match win chance 44%
1–0
vs Faroe Islands
Sat, Jun 6, 2026 · Baltic Cup · Pre-match win chance 44%
1–0
@ Rwanda
Mon, Mar 30, 2026 · Fifa Series · Pre-match win chance 27%
0–2
@ Kenya
Fri, Mar 27, 2026 · Fifa Series · Pre-match win chance 23%
1–1
@ Norway
Thu, Nov 13, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 5%
1–4