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UEFA Nations League · League C · Group 4 · Round 3
Sat, Oct 3, 2026 ยท 5:00 PM BST

Estonia vs Luxembourg Prediction & Win Probability

Luxembourg has a 38% chance to win, with a 31% chance of a draw.

Rating 1410 · World #131
Form: WWLDL
VS
Rating 1473 · World #100
Form: WWLLL
Model Probability
32%
38%
Draw 31%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 4 position, depending on this result

๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ช Estonia

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand6%15%26%52%
Estonia win 13%26%34%28%
Draw 5%15%27%53%
Luxembourg win 2%7%20%71%

๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡บ Luxembourg

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand15%26%32%26%
Estonia win 7%17%28%48%
Draw 13%25%36%26%
Luxembourg win 24%34%33%9%

League C ยท Group 4

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
– Iceland 0 0 1581 54% 26% 14% 6%
– Bulgaria 0 0 1514 25% 32% 27% 16%
– Luxembourg 0 0 1473 15% 26% 32% 26%
– Estonia 0 0 1410 6% 15% 26% 52%
Promoted to League B (1st) Promotion play-off (2nd) Ranking of 4th-placed teams (4th) Relegation play-off Relegated to League D

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
EstoniaStatLuxembourg
2-2-6Won-Drawn-Lost2-1-7
0.7Avg goals scored0.8
2.0Avg goals conceded1.6
1410Rating1473
#131World rank#100

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
Estonia and Luxembourg haven't met since 2010.

Recent Results

๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ช Estonia

vs Lithuania
Tue, Jun 9, 2026 · Baltic Cup · Pre-match win chance 44%
1–0
vs Faroe Islands
Sat, Jun 6, 2026 · Baltic Cup · Pre-match win chance 44%
1–0
@ Rwanda
Mon, Mar 30, 2026 · Fifa Series · Pre-match win chance 27%
0–2
@ Kenya
Fri, Mar 27, 2026 · Fifa Series · Pre-match win chance 23%
1–1
@ Norway
Thu, Nov 13, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 5%
1–4

๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡บ Luxembourg

vs Malta
Tue, Mar 31, 2026 · Nations League · Pre-match win chance 62%
3–0
@ Malta
Thu, Mar 26, 2026 · Nations League · Pre-match win chance 48%
2–0
@ Northern Ireland
Mon, Nov 17, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 16%
0–1
vs Germany
Fri, Nov 14, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 4%
0–2
@ Slovakia
Mon, Oct 13, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 9%
0–2