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UEFA Nations League · League C · Group 3 · Round 3
Fri, Oct 2, 2026 Β· 3:00 PM BST

Kazakhstan vs Moldova Prediction & Win Probability

Kazakhstan has a 54% chance to win, with a 27% chance of a draw.

Rating 1462 · World #106
Form: WWDDW
VS
Rating 1361 · World #151
Form: LLDLL
Model Probability
54%
19%
Draw 27%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 3 position, depending on this result

πŸ‡°πŸ‡Ώ Kazakhstan

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand8%50%27%15%
Kazakhstan win 11%61%22%6%
Draw 5%45%31%19%
Moldova win 3%25%36%37%

πŸ‡²πŸ‡© Moldova

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand1%18%34%47%
Kazakhstan win <1%8%34%58%
Draw 1%21%35%42%
Moldova win 3%45%32%20%

League C Β· Group 3

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
– Slovakia 0 0 1706 89% 9% 1% <1%
– Kazakhstan 0 0 1462 8% 50% 27% 15%
– Faroe Islands 0 0 1382 2% 23% 38% 38%
– Moldova 0 0 1361 1% 18% 34% 47%
Promoted to League B (1st) Promotion play-off (2nd) Ranking of 4th-placed teams (4th) Relegation play-off Relegated to League D

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
KazakhstanStatMoldova
4-2-4Won-Drawn-Lost1-1-8
1.2Avg goals scored0.6
1.3Avg goals conceded3.3
1462Rating1361
#106World rank#151

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
KazakhstanStatMoldova
3Wins (6 meetings, 1 draw)2
3Last 5 meetings (1 draw)1
1.17Average goals0.83
Last meeting (Tue, Mar 29, 2022, Nations League): Kazakhstan 0–1 Moldova

Recent Results

πŸ‡°πŸ‡Ώ Kazakhstan

vs Comoros
Tue, Mar 31, 2026 · Fifa Series · Pre-match win chance 45%
1–0
vs Namibia
Wed, Mar 25, 2026 · Fifa Series · Pre-match win chance 46%
2–0
vs Belgium
Sat, Nov 15, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 5%
1–1
@ North Macedonia
Mon, Oct 13, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 13%
1–1
vs Liechtenstein
Fri, Oct 10, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 78%
4–0

πŸ‡²πŸ‡© Moldova

@ Israel
Sun, Nov 16, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 10%
1–4
vs Italy
Thu, Nov 13, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 3%
0–2
@ Estonia
Tue, Oct 14, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 24%
1–1
@ Norway
Tue, Sep 9, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 4%
1–11
vs Israel
Fri, Sep 5, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 15%
0–4