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UEFA Nations League · League C · Group 1 · Round 5
Thu, Nov 12, 2026 ยท 7:45 PM GMT

San Marino vs Belarus Prediction & Win Probability

Belarus has a 83% chance to win, with a 12% chance of a draw.

Rating 1055 · World #220
Form: LLLLL
VS
Rating 1478 · World #99
Form: DDLLL
Model Probability
6%
83%
Draw 12%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 1 position, depending on this result

๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฒ San Marino

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand<1%<1%2%98%
San Marino win <1%<1%17%83%
Draw <1%<1%3%97%
Belarus win <1%<1%<1%100%

๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡พ Belarus

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand11%24%63%2%
San Marino win 4%14%67%15%
Draw 6%21%71%3%
Belarus win 12%26%62%<1%

League C ยท Group 1

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
– Albania 0 0 1624 50% 35% 14% <1%
– Finland 0 0 1595 39% 40% 20% <1%
– Belarus 0 0 1478 11% 24% 63% 2%
– San Marino 0 0 1055 <1% <1% 2% 98%
Promoted to League B (1st) Promotion play-off (2nd) Ranking of 4th-placed teams (4th) Relegation play-off Relegated to League D

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
San MarinoStatBelarus
1-1-8Won-Drawn-Lost0-5-5
0.6Avg goals scored0.6
4.1Avg goals conceded2.1
1055Rating1478
#220World rank#99

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
San MarinoStatBelarus
0Wins (2 meetings, 0 draws)2
0Last 2 meetings (0 draws)2
0.0Average goals3.5
Last meeting (Sun, Nov 18, 2018, Nations League): San Marino 0–2 Belarus

Recent Results

๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฒ San Marino

@ Romania
Tue, Nov 18, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 1%
1–7
vs Cyprus
Sun, Oct 12, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 10%
0–4
@ Austria
Thu, Oct 9, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 1%
0–10
vs Bosnia & Herzegovina
Sat, Sep 6, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 3%
0–6
vs Austria
Tue, Jun 10, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 1%
0–4

๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡พ Belarus

vs Greece
Tue, Nov 18, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 13%
0–0
@ Denmark
Sat, Nov 15, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 4%
2–2
@ Scotland
Sun, Oct 12, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 8%
1–2
vs Denmark
Thu, Oct 9, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 8%
0–6
vs Scotland
Mon, Sep 8, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 14%
0–2