Final Score: Marlins 10 - Rays 5
Saturday, May 16, 2026 at 4:10 PM ET

Marlins @ Rays

MLB model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Marlins
20-25 Rating 1475
Form: WLWLL
Model Probability
40%
60%
Projected margin: Tampa Bay Rays +0.8
Rays
29-14 Rating 1527
Form: WWWLW

Model Prediction Through Season

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Stat Marlins Rays
All-time wins 63 85
Last 5 meetings 2 3
Average runs 4.3 4.7
Last meeting 2 7

Key Season Stats

Stat Marlins Rays
Games played 45 43
Avg runs scored 4.2 4.6
Avg runs conceded 4.5 3.9
Win percentage 44% 67%
Away win % / Home win % 32% 79%