Final Score: Marlins 6 - Padres 7
Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 8:40 PM ET

Marlins @ Padres

MLB model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Marlins
76-78 Rating 1489
Form: WLWWL
Model Probability
40%
60%
Projected margin: San Diego Padres +0.8
Padres
85-69 Rating 1544
Form: WLWWW

Model Prediction Through Season

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Stat Marlins Padres
All-time wins 108 125
Last 5 meetings 1 4
Average runs 4.2 4.3
Last meeting 2 8

Key Season Stats

Stat Marlins Padres
Games played 154 154
Avg runs scored 4.4 4.4
Avg runs conceded 4.4 4.2
Win percentage 49% 55%
Away win % / Home win % 41% 62%