Blue Jays @ Orioles

MLB model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Final Score: Blue Jays 2 - Orioles 4
Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 6:35 PM ET
Toronto
Blue Jays
77-81 Rating 1516
Form: LLWLL
2 – 4
Model Probability
48%
52%
Projected margin: Baltimore Orioles +0.0
Baltimore
Orioles
77-81 Rating 1499
Form: LLLWW

Model Prediction Through Season

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Stat Blue Jays Orioles
All-time wins 407 350
Last 5 meetings 2 3
Average runs 4.7 4.5
Last meeting 2 4

Key Season Stats

Stat Blue Jays Orioles
Games played 158 158
Avg runs scored 4.0 4.4
Avg runs conceded 4.3 4.6
Win percentage 49% 49%
Away win % / Home win % 46% 48%