Reds @ Blue Jays

MLB model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Final Score: Reds 5 - Blue Jays 6
Friday, September 25, 2026 at 7:07 PM ET
Cincinnati
Reds
74-85 Rating 1486
Form: LLWLW
5 – 6
Model Probability
43%
57%
Projected margin: Toronto Blue Jays +0.5
Toronto
Blue Jays
77-82 Rating 1514
Form: LWLLL

Model Prediction Through Season

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Stat Reds Blue Jays
All-time wins 11 19
Last 5 meetings 2 3
Average runs 4.2 6.4
Last meeting 9 13

Key Season Stats

Stat Reds Blue Jays
Games played 159 159
Avg runs scored 4.1 4.0
Avg runs conceded 5.1 4.3
Win percentage 47% 48%
Away win % / Home win % 46% 51%