Final Score: Patriots 23 - Bills 20
Sunday, October 5, 2025 at 8:20 PM ET
Patriots @ Bills
NFL model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Model Prediction Through Season
| Stat | Patriots | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| All-time wins | 67 | 43 |
| Last 5 meetings | 2 | 3 |
| Average points | 22.3 | 19.0 |
| Last meeting | 23 | 16 |
| Stat | Patriots | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Games played | 4 | 4 |
| Avg points scored | 25.5 | 33.2 |
| Avg points conceded | 20.2 | 22.5 |
| Win percentage | 50% | 100% |
| Away win % / Home win % | 100% | 100% |
Recent Results
Patriots
vs Carolina Panthers
Sep 28, 2025 · Margin: +29 · Total: 55
42-13
vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Sep 21, 2025 · Margin: -7 · Total: 35
14-21
@ Miami Dolphins
Sep 14, 2025 · Margin: +6 · Total: 60
33-27
vs Las Vegas Raiders
Sep 7, 2025 · Margin: -7 · Total: 33
13-20
vs Buffalo Bills
Jan 5, 2025 · Margin: +7 · Total: 39
23-16
vs Los Angeles Chargers
Dec 28, 2024 · Margin: -33 · Total: 47
7-40
@ Buffalo Bills
Dec 22, 2024 · Margin: -3 · Total: 45
21-24
@ Arizona Cardinals
Dec 15, 2024 · Margin: -13 · Total: 47
17-30
vs Indianapolis Colts
Dec 1, 2024 · Margin: -1 · Total: 49
24-25
@ Miami Dolphins
Nov 24, 2024 · Margin: -19 · Total: 49
15-34
Bills
vs New Orleans Saints
Sep 28, 2025 · Margin: +12 · Total: 50
31-19
vs Miami Dolphins
Sep 18, 2025 · Margin: +10 · Total: 52
31-21
@ New York Jets
Sep 14, 2025 · Margin: +20 · Total: 40
30-10
vs Baltimore Ravens
Sep 7, 2025 · Margin: +1 · Total: 81
41-40
@ Kansas City Chiefs
Jan 26, 2025 · Margin: -3 · Total: 61
29-32
vs Baltimore Ravens
Jan 19, 2025 · Margin: +2 · Total: 52
27-25
vs Denver Broncos
Jan 12, 2025 · Margin: +24 · Total: 38
31-7
@ New England Patriots
Jan 5, 2025 · Margin: -7 · Total: 39
16-23
vs New York Jets
Dec 29, 2024 · Margin: +26 · Total: 54
40-14
vs New England Patriots
Dec 22, 2024 · Margin: +3 · Total: 45
24-21