Final Score: Canadiens 4 - Lightning 5
Sunday, December 28, 2025 at 5:00 PM ET

Canadiens @ Lightning

NHL model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Canadiens
20-17 Rating 1492
Form: LWWLW
Model Probability
41%
59%
Projected margin: Tampa Bay Lightning +0.8
Lightning
21-16 Rating 1535
Form: LLWWW

Model Prediction Through Season

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Stat Canadiens Lightning
All-time wins 59 74
Last 5 meetings 2 3
Average goals 2.6 2.8
Last meeting 1 6

Key Season Stats

Stat Canadiens Lightning
Games played 37 37
Avg goals scored 3.3 3.3
Avg goals conceded 3.4 2.6
Win percentage 54% 57%
Away win % / Home win % 59% 53%