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Toulouse vs PSG Prediction & Win Probability

PSG has a 69% chance to win.
Ligue 1
Fri, Dec 4, 2026 · 7:45 PM GMT
Ligue 1
Toulouse
2-4-3Rating 1746
Form: LDWDW
vs
Model Probability
13%
Draw 19%
69%
Ligue 1
PSG
6-2-1Rating 2042
Form: WWWWW

Model Prediction Through Season

Season Impact

PSG

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now 95.2%99.7%<1%<1%<1%
If Win 96.9%99.9%<1%<1%<1%
If Draw 93.8%99.6%<1%<1%<1%
If Lose 91.7%99.2%<1%<1%<1%

Toulouse

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now <1%2.2%2.3%11.2%2.1%
If Win <1%4.2%3.6%5.7%<1%
If Draw <1%1.8%2.7%10.1%1.6%
If Lose <1%1.8%1.8%13.6%2.7%

Season Form Coming Into This Game

ToulouseStatPSG
9Games played9
1.3Avg goals scored2.3
1.4Avg goals conceded1.1
22% / 44% / 33%Win / Draw / Loss67% / 22% / 11%
25% Home win % / Away win % 67%

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
ToulouseStatPSG
2All-time wins (28 meetings, 3 draws)23
1Last 5 meetings (0 draws)4
0.7Average goals2.4
Last meeting (2026-04-03): PSG 3–1 Toulouse