← Home / France / Ligue 1 / Matches / Toulouse vs Marseille
Ligue 1
Sat, May 1, 2027 · 4:00 PM BST

Toulouse vs Marseille Prediction & Win Probability

Toulouse has a 41% chance to win.

1-2-2 · Rating 1740
Form: WDLDL
VS
1-0-4 · Rating 1764
Form: LLLLW
Model Probability
41%
31%
Draw 28%

Model Prediction Through Season

Season Impact

Marseille

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now <1%2.5%3.2%11.1%4.1%
If Win <1%4.6%4.5%7.7%2.6%
If Draw <1%2.9%2.9%11.0%3.9%
If Lose <1%2.1%2.5%12.9%4.7%

Toulouse

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now <1%1.8%2.0%14.9%5.7%
If Win <1%2.9%3.3%11.1%3.6%
If Draw <1%1.7%1.9%15.6%5.9%
If Lose <1%1.2%1.1%18.5%6.8%

Season Form Coming Into This Game

ToulouseStatMarseille
5Games played5
1.4Avg goals scored1.4
1.8Avg goals conceded1.6
20% / 40% / 40%Win / Draw / Loss20% / 0% / 80%
33% Home win % / Away win % 0%

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
ToulouseStatMarseille
1All-time wins (29 meetings, 12 draws)16
0Last 5 meetings (2 draws)3
0.8Average goals1.9
Last meeting (2026-03-07): Toulouse 0–1 Marseille