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Sun, May 2, 2027 · 4:00 PM BST

Atl. Madrid vs Alaves Prediction & Win Probability

Atl. Madrid has a 58% chance to win.

5-1-1 · Rating 1949
Form: WWWLW
VS
3-2-2 · Rating 1854
Form: DLLWW
Model Probability
58%
19%
Draw 23%

Model Prediction Through Season

Season Impact

Alaves

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
Now <1%22.9%9.7%3.4%
If Win <1%32.9%10.8%2.1%
If Draw <1%24.0%10.1%2.8%
If Lose <1%19.0%9.8%4.2%

Atl. Madrid

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
Now 3.6%86.3%4.3%<1%
If Win 4.7%89.1%3.7%<1%
If Draw 3.8%84.6%5.4%<1%
If Lose 3.0%80.5%6.8%<1%

Season Form Coming Into This Game

Atl. MadridStatAlaves
7Games played7
2.3Avg goals scored1.6
1.0Avg goals conceded0.9
71% / 14% / 14%Win / Draw / Loss43% / 29% / 29%
75% Home win % / Away win % 0%

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Atl. MadridStatAlaves
11All-time wins (18 meetings, 5 draws)2
2Last 5 meetings (2 draws)1
1.4Average goals0.6
Last meeting (2026-01-18): Atl. Madrid 1–0 Alaves