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Atl. Madrid vs Alaves Prediction & Win Probability

Atl. Madrid has a 62% chance to win.
La Liga
Sun, May 2, 2027 · 4:00 PM BST
La Liga
Atl. Madrid
9-1-2Rating 1960
Form: LWWWW
vs
Model Probability
62%
Draw 22%
16%
La Liga
Alaves
3-4-5Rating 1832
Form: DLDLL

Model Prediction Through Season

Season Impact

Alaves

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
Now <1%6.4%6.0%8.2%
If Win <1%10.2%8.7%5.0%
If Draw <1%6.4%7.2%7.5%
If Lose <1%4.5%6.5%8.6%

Atl. Madrid

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
Now 2.5%97.3%1.8%<1%
If Win 3.0%98.3%1.2%<1%
If Draw 1.6%96.9%1.9%<1%
If Lose 1.2%95.7%2.5%<1%

Season Form Coming Into This Game

Atl. MadridStatAlaves
12Games played12
1.9Avg goals scored1.2
0.8Avg goals conceded1.4
75% / 8% / 17%Win / Draw / Loss25% / 33% / 42%
67% Home win % / Away win % 0%

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Atl. MadridStatAlaves
12All-time wins (19 meetings, 5 draws)2
3Last 5 meetings (2 draws)0
1.5Average goals0.6
Last meeting (2026-10-10): Alaves 1–2 Atl. Madrid