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UEFA Nations League · League D · Group 2 · Round 4
Sun, Oct 4, 2026 ยท 2:00 PM BST

Azerbaijan vs Lithuania Prediction & Win Probability

Azerbaijan has a 48% chance to win, with a 29% chance of a draw.

Rating 1428 · World #120
Form: DWLLL
VS
Rating 1374 · World #147
Form: LDLLL
Model Probability
48%
24%
Draw 29%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 2 position, depending on this result

๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Azerbaijan

Scenario1st2nd3rd
As things stand60%34%6%
Azerbaijan win 83%15%2%
Draw 52%41%7%
Lithuania win 23%66%11%

๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡น Lithuania

Scenario1st2nd3rd
As things stand37%52%11%
Azerbaijan win 15%70%15%
Draw 43%48%9%
Lithuania win 75%22%4%

League D ยท Group 2

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd
Azerbaijan 0 0 1428 60% 34% 6%
Lithuania 0 0 1374 37% 52% 11%
Liechtenstein 0 0 1141 3% 14% 84%
Promoted to League C (1st) Promotion play-off (2nd)

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
AzerbaijanStatLithuania
1-3-6Won-Drawn-Lost0-4-6
1.0Avg goals scored0.7
2.4Avg goals conceded1.7
1428Rating1374
#120World rank#147

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
AzerbaijanStatLithuania
0Wins (1 meeting, 1 draw)0
0Last 1 meeting (1 draw)0
0.0Average goals0.0
Last meeting (Mon, Mar 25, 2019, Friendly): Azerbaijan 0–0 Lithuania

Recent Results

๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Azerbaijan

vs Sierra Leone
Mon, Mar 30, 2026 · Fifa Series · Pre-match win chance 41%
1–1
vs Saint Lucia
Fri, Mar 27, 2026 · Fifa Series · Pre-match win chance 63%
6–1
vs France
Sun, Nov 16, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 2%
1–3
vs Iceland
Thu, Nov 13, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 23%
0–2
@ Ukraine
Mon, Oct 13, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 6%
1–2

๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡น Lithuania

@ Estonia
Tue, Jun 9, 2026 · Baltic Cup · Pre-match win chance 26%
0–1
vs Latvia
Sat, Jun 6, 2026 · Baltic Cup · Pre-match win chance 38%
1–1
@ Netherlands
Mon, Nov 17, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 2%
0–4
vs Poland
Sun, Oct 12, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 8%
0–2
@ Finland
Thu, Oct 9, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 11%
1–2