Rays @ Orioles

MLB model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Final Score: Rays 3 - Orioles 5
Friday, August 21, 2026 at 7:15 PM ET
Tampa Bay
Rays
76-51 Rating 1532
Form: LWLWL
3 – 5
Model Probability
51%
49%
Projected margin: Tampa Bay Rays +0.2
Baltimore
Orioles
61-67 Rating 1495
Form: WLLLL

Model Prediction Through Season

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Stat Rays Orioles
All-time wins 250 238
Last 5 meetings 1 4
Average runs 4.7 4.5
Last meeting 7 6

Key Season Stats

Stat Rays Orioles
Games played 127 128
Avg runs scored 4.6 4.5
Avg runs conceded 4.2 4.8
Win percentage 60% 48%
Away win % / Home win % 54% 49%