Red Sox @ Rays

MLB model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Final Score: Red Sox 4 - Rays 2
Friday, September 18, 2026 at 7:10 PM ET
Boston
Red Sox
83-70 Rating 1536
Form: WWLLW
4 – 2
Model Probability
45%
55%
Projected margin: Tampa Bay Rays +0.4
Tampa Bay
Rays
93-59 Rating 1546
Form: WWWWW

Model Prediction Through Season

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Stat Red Sox Rays
All-time wins 271 233
Last 5 meetings 4 1
Average runs 4.8 4.3
Last meeting 6 1

Key Season Stats

Stat Red Sox Rays
Games played 153 152
Avg runs scored 4.4 4.6
Avg runs conceded 3.8 4.1
Win percentage 54% 61%
Away win % / Home win % 58% 68%