Final Score: Canadiens 4 - Lightning 1
Tuesday, March 31, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET

Canadiens @ Lightning

NHL model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Canadiens
42-31 Rating 1527
Form: WWWWW
Model Probability
42%
58%
Projected margin: Tampa Bay Lightning +0.8
Lightning
46-27 Rating 1565
Form: LWLWW

Model Prediction Through Season

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Stat Canadiens Lightning
All-time wins 59 75
Last 5 meetings 2 3
Average goals 2.6 2.8
Last meeting 4 5

Key Season Stats

Stat Canadiens Lightning
Games played 73 73
Avg goals scored 3.5 3.7
Avg goals conceded 3.2 2.8
Win percentage 58% 63%
Away win % / Home win % 56% 64%