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Southampton vs Derby Prediction & Win Probability

Southampton has a 66% chance to win.
Championship
Sat, Nov 21, 2026 · 12:30 PM GMT
Championship
Southampton
8-4-3Rating 1750
Form: LDWWD
vs
Model Probability
66%
Draw 20%
14%
Championship
Derby
2-4-9Rating 1591
Form: WLLDL

Model Prediction Through Season

Season Impact

Derby

Scenario Win LeagueAutomatic promotionPromotion playoffRelegation
Now <1%<1%<1%56.0%
If Win <1%<1%1.0%41.8%
If Draw <1%<1%<1%51.3%
If Lose <1%<1%<1%59.5%

Southampton

Scenario Win LeagueAutomatic promotionPromotion playoffRelegation
Now 23.6%42.2%48.6%<1%
If Win 27.5%45.9%47.5%<1%
If Draw 18.1%34.2%54.1%<1%
If Lose 15.4%29.2%55.0%<1%

Season Form Coming Into This Game

SouthamptonStatDerby
15Games played15
1.9Avg goals scored0.9
1.0Avg goals conceded2.0
53% / 27% / 20%Win / Draw / Loss13% / 27% / 60%
86% Home win % / Away win % 14%

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
SouthamptonStatDerby
2All-time wins (4 meetings, 2 draws)0
2Last 4 meetings (2 draws)0
2.0Average goals0.8
Last meeting (2026-04-11): Southampton 2–1 Derby