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Stoke vs Southampton Prediction & Win Probability

Southampton has a 43% chance to win.
Championship
Wed, Mar 3, 2027 · 7:45 PM GMT
Championship
Stoke
9-2-4Rating 1641
Form: WWWDW
vs
Model Probability
30%
Draw 28%
43%
Championship
Southampton
8-4-3Rating 1750
Form: LDWWD

Model Prediction Through Season

Season Impact

Southampton

Scenario Win LeagueAutomatic promotionPromotion playoffRelegation
Now 23.3%42.8%48.7%<1%
If Win 27.5%46.8%47.1%<1%
If Draw 22.0%38.7%52.0%<1%
If Lose 17.6%32.6%54.8%<1%

Stoke

Scenario Win LeagueAutomatic promotionPromotion playoffRelegation
Now 2.3%5.4%42.5%<1%
If Win 2.7%7.5%50.5%<1%
If Draw 1.9%4.8%42.9%<1%
If Lose 1.8%4.1%39.4%<1%

Season Form Coming Into This Game

StokeStatSouthampton
15Games played15
1.6Avg goals scored1.9
1.2Avg goals conceded1.0
60% / 13% / 27%Win / Draw / Loss53% / 27% / 20%
57% Home win % / Away win % 25%

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
StokeStatSouthampton
6All-time wins (17 meetings, 6 draws)5
2Last 5 meetings (0 draws)3
1.1Average goals1.1
Last meeting (2026-08-22): Southampton 3–1 Stoke