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Bundesliga
Sat, Jan 9, 2027 · 2:30 PM GMT

Dortmund vs Mainz Prediction & Win Probability

Dortmund has a 65% chance to win.

4-0-0 · Rating 1916
Form: WWWWW
VS
2-1-1 · Rating 1768
Form: WLWDW
Model Probability
65%
15%
Draw 20%

Model Prediction Through Season

Season Impact

Mainz

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now <1%14.1%8.7%3.6%<1%
If Win <1%21.7%11.5%1.8%<1%
If Draw <1%14.1%9.5%3.0%<1%
If Lose <1%11.0%7.9%4.0%<1%

Dortmund

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now 16.9%91.2%3.4%<1%<1%
If Win 17.7%93.3%3.5%<1%<1%
If Draw 12.3%89.4%4.7%<1%<1%
If Lose 10.1%84.5%6.2%<1%<1%

Season Form Coming Into This Game

DortmundStatMainz
4Games played4
2.2Avg goals scored2.5
0.5Avg goals conceded1.5
100% / 0% / 0%Win / Draw / Loss50% / 25% / 25%
100% Home win % / Away win % 100%

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
DortmundStatMainz
22All-time wins (33 meetings, 5 draws)6
3Last 5 meetings (0 draws)2
1.9Average goals1.0
Last meeting (2026-02-13): Dortmund 4–0 Mainz