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UEFA Nations League · League B · Group 2 · Round 3
Fri, Oct 2, 2026 Β· 7:45 PM BST

Ukraine vs Northern Ireland Prediction & Win Probability

Ukraine has a 61% chance to win, with a 24% chance of a draw.

Rating 1751 · World #28
Form: LWLWW
VS
Rating 1605 · World #67
Form: LWLLW
Model Probability
61%
15%
Draw 24%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 2 position, depending on this result

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ Ukraine

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand46%30%16%7%
Ukraine win 55%30%12%3%
Draw 38%30%21%11%
Northern Ireland win 26%27%27%21%

πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ Northern Ireland

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand8%16%30%46%
Ukraine win 4%12%30%54%
Draw 10%19%30%42%
Northern Ireland win 23%26%29%22%

League B Β· Group 2

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
– Ukraine 0 0 1751 46% 30% 16% 7%
– Hungary 0 0 1720 33% 33% 21% 13%
– Georgia 0 0 1635 12% 21% 33% 34%
– Northern Ireland 0 0 1605 8% 16% 30% 46%
Promoted to League A (1st) Promotion play-off (2nd) Relegation play-off (3rd) Relegated to League C (4th)

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
UkraineStatNorthern Ireland
5-1-4Won-Drawn-Lost5-1-4
1.6Avg goals scored1.6
1.9Avg goals conceded1.0
1751Rating1605
#28World rank#67

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
UkraineStatNorthern Ireland
1Wins (2 meetings, 0 draws)1
1Last 2 meetings (0 draws)1
0.5Average goals1.0
Last meeting (Thu, Jun 3, 2021, Friendly): Ukraine 1–0 Northern Ireland

Recent Results

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ Ukraine

vs Sweden
Thu, Mar 26, 2026 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 50%
1–3
vs Iceland
Sun, Nov 16, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 65%
2–0
@ France
Thu, Nov 13, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 10%
0–4
vs Azerbaijan
Mon, Oct 13, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 82%
2–1
@ Iceland
Fri, Oct 10, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 54%
5–3

πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ Northern Ireland

@ Italy
Thu, Mar 26, 2026 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 9%
0–2
vs Luxembourg
Mon, Nov 17, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 60%
1–0
@ Slovakia
Fri, Nov 14, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 18%
0–1
vs Germany
Mon, Oct 13, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 9%
0–1
vs Slovakia
Fri, Oct 10, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 24%
2–0