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UEFA Nations League · League A · Group 3 · Round 3
Sat, Oct 3, 2026 ยท 5:00 PM BST

Croatia vs England Prediction & Win Probability

England has a 49% chance to win, with a 28% chance of a draw.

Rating 1855 · World #15
Form: LWWLW
VS
Rating 1996 · World #4
Form: WLDWW
Model Probability
23%
49%
Draw 28%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 3 position, depending on this result

๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ท Croatia

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand5%19%59%17%
Croatia win 12%39%42%7%
Draw 4%21%60%15%
England win 2%9%66%23%

๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ England

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand30%50%17%3%
Croatia win 16%39%38%6%
Draw 24%54%17%4%
England win 40%54%6%<1%

League A ยท Group 3

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
– Spain 0 0 2079 65% 28% 6% <1%
– England 0 0 1996 30% 50% 17% 3%
– Croatia 0 0 1855 5% 19% 59% 17%
– Czech Republic 0 0 1693 <1% 2% 18% 80%
Quarter-finals (1st, 2nd) Relegation play-off (3rd) Relegated to League B (4th)

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
CroatiaStatEngland
7-1-2Won-Drawn-Lost7-2-1
2.0Avg goals scored2.3
1.0Avg goals conceded1.2
1855Rating1996
#15World rank#4

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
CroatiaStatEngland
0Wins (5 meetings, 2 draws)3
0Last 5 meetings (2 draws)3
0.8Average goals1.6
Last meeting (Wed, Jun 17, 2026, World Cup): England 4–2 Croatia

Recent Results

๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ท Croatia

@ Portugal
Thu, Jul 2, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 25%
1–2
vs Ghana
Sat, Jun 27, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 69%
2–1
@ Panama
Tue, Jun 23, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 55%
1–0
@ England
Wed, Jun 17, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 22%
2–4
@ Montenegro
Mon, Nov 17, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 75%
3–2

๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ England

@ France
Sat, Jul 18, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 27%
6–4
vs Argentina
Wed, Jul 15, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 31%
1–2
@ Norway
Sat, Jul 11, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 56%
1–1
@ Mexico
Mon, Jul 6, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 50%
3–2
vs D.R. Congo
Wed, Jul 1, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 76%
2–1