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UEFA Nations League · League A · Group 2 · Round 4
Sun, Oct 4, 2026 ยท 7:45 PM BST

Netherlands vs Serbia Prediction & Win Probability

Netherlands has a 69% chance to win, with a 20% chance of a draw.

Rating 1950 · World #6
Form: DWWDW
VS
Rating 1745 · World #29
Form: WLWLL
Model Probability
69%
11%
Draw 20%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 2 position, depending on this result

๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Netherlands

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand52%35%10%3%
Netherlands win 59%34%6%1%
Draw 41%40%14%4%
Serbia win 32%33%25%10%

๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ธ Serbia

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand4%13%42%42%
Netherlands win 2%10%42%46%
Draw 5%16%42%38%
Serbia win 14%30%36%21%

League A ยท Group 2

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
– Netherlands 0 0 1950 52% 35% 10% 3%
– Germany 0 0 1927 41% 41% 14% 4%
– Serbia 0 0 1745 4% 13% 42% 42%
– Greece 0 0 1728 3% 10% 35% 52%
Quarter-finals (1st, 2nd) Relegation play-off (3rd) Relegated to League B (4th)

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
NetherlandsStatSerbia
6-4-0Won-Drawn-Lost5-2-3
2.8Avg goals scored1.2
0.9Avg goals conceded1.1
1950Rating1745
#6World rank#29

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
Netherlands and Serbia haven't met since 2010.

Recent Results

๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Netherlands

vs Morocco
Tue, Jun 30, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 48%
1–1
@ Tunisia
Thu, Jun 25, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 77%
3–1
vs Sweden
Sat, Jun 20, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 62%
5–1
vs Japan
Sun, Jun 14, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 50%
2–2
vs Lithuania
Mon, Nov 17, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 94%
4–0

๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ธ Serbia

vs Latvia
Sun, Nov 16, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 84%
2–1
@ England
Thu, Nov 13, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 11%
0–2
@ Andorra
Tue, Oct 14, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 90%
3–1
vs Albania
Sat, Oct 11, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 60%
0–1
vs England
Tue, Sep 9, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 19%
0–5