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UEFA Nations League · League B · Group 4 · Round 4
Mon, Oct 5, 2026 Β· 7:45 PM BST

Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland Prediction & Win Probability

Poland has a 46% chance to win, with a 29% chance of a draw.

Rating 1608 · World #64
Form: LWLDD
VS
Rating 1732 · World #33
Form: LWWDW
Model Probability
25%
46%
Draw 29%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 4 position, depending on this result

πŸ‡§πŸ‡¦ Bosnia & Herzegovina

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand7%14%27%52%
Bosnia & Herzegovina win 17%24%30%29%
Draw 7%14%28%51%
Poland win 2%9%25%64%

πŸ‡΅πŸ‡± Poland

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand36%29%22%13%
Bosnia & Herzegovina win 19%25%28%29%
Draw 33%30%25%13%
Poland win 48%30%17%4%

League B Β· Group 4

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
– Poland 0 0 1732 36% 29% 22% 13%
– Sweden 0 0 1727 35% 30% 22% 13%
– Romania 0 0 1686 21% 27% 30% 22%
– Bosnia & Herzegovina 0 0 1608 7% 14% 27% 52%
Promoted to League A (1st) Promotion play-off (2nd) Relegation play-off (3rd) Relegated to League C (4th)

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
Bosnia & HerzegovinaStatPoland
2-5-3Won-Drawn-Lost6-2-2
1.4Avg goals scored1.8
1.6Avg goals conceded1.1
1608Rating1732
#64World rank#33

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
Bosnia & HerzegovinaStatPoland
0Wins (4 meetings, 1 draw)3
0Last 4 meetings (1 draw)3
0.75Average goals2.0
Last meeting (Wed, Oct 14, 2020, Nations League): Poland 3–0 Bosnia & Herzegovina

Recent Results

πŸ‡§πŸ‡¦ Bosnia & Herzegovina

@ USA
Thu, Jul 2, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 14%
0–2
vs Qatar
Wed, Jun 24, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 37%
3–1
@ Switzerland
Thu, Jun 18, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 14%
1–4
@ Canada
Fri, Jun 12, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 21%
1–1
vs Italy
Tue, Mar 31, 2026 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 12%
1–1

πŸ‡΅πŸ‡± Poland

@ Sweden
Tue, Mar 31, 2026 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 33%
2–3
vs Albania
Thu, Mar 26, 2026 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 55%
2–1
@ Malta
Mon, Nov 17, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 82%
3–2
vs Netherlands
Fri, Nov 14, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 16%
1–1
@ Lithuania
Sun, Oct 12, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 75%
2–0