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UEFA Nations League · League B · Group 4 · Round 5
Sat, Nov 14, 2026 Β· 7:45 PM GMT

Romania vs Poland Prediction & Win Probability

Poland has a 35% chance to win, with a 31% chance of a draw.

Rating 1686 · World #50
Form: LWLWD
VS
Rating 1732 · World #32
Form: LWWDW
Model Probability
34%
35%
Draw 31%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 4 position, depending on this result

πŸ‡·πŸ‡΄ Romania

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand21%26%30%23%
Romania win 37%32%21%11%
Draw 18%26%32%23%
Poland win 8%22%37%34%

πŸ‡΅πŸ‡± Poland

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand37%29%22%13%
Romania win 19%27%31%23%
Draw 35%31%22%12%
Poland win 56%28%12%4%

League B Β· Group 4

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Poland 0 0 1732 37% 29% 22% 13%
Sweden 0 0 1727 35% 30% 22% 13%
Romania 0 0 1686 21% 26% 30% 23%
Bosnia & Herzegovina 0 0 1608 7% 14% 27% 51%
Promoted to League A (1st) Promotion play-off (2nd) Relegation play-off (3rd) Relegated to League C (4th)

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
RomaniaStatPoland
5-1-4Won-Drawn-Lost6-2-2
2.3Avg goals scored1.8
1.2Avg goals conceded1.1
1686Rating1732
#50World rank#32

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
RomaniaStatPoland
0Wins (3 meetings, 0 draws)3
0Last 3 meetings (0 draws)3
0.67Average goals3.33
Last meeting (Sat, Jun 10, 2017, World Cup qualifier): Poland 3–1 Romania

Recent Results

πŸ‡·πŸ‡΄ Romania

@ Turkey
Thu, Mar 26, 2026 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 19%
0–1
vs San Marino
Tue, Nov 18, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 96%
7–1
@ Bosnia & Herzegovina
Sat, Nov 15, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 47%
1–3
vs Austria
Sun, Oct 12, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 27%
1–0
@ Cyprus
Tue, Sep 9, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 74%
2–2

πŸ‡΅πŸ‡± Poland

@ Sweden
Tue, Mar 31, 2026 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 33%
2–3
vs Albania
Thu, Mar 26, 2026 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 55%
2–1
@ Malta
Mon, Nov 17, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 82%
3–2
vs Netherlands
Fri, Nov 14, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 16%
1–1
@ Lithuania
Sun, Oct 12, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 75%
2–0