UEFA Nations League · League A · Group 1 · Round 4
Mon, Oct 5, 2026 ยท 7:45 PM BST

Italy vs Turkey Prediction & Win Probability

Italy has a 52% chance to win, with a 27% chance of a draw.

Rating 1866 · World #13
Form: DWLWW
VS
Rating 1780 · World #24
Form: WLLWW
Model Probability
52%
20%
Draw 27%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 1 position, depending on this result

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Italy

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand13%30%34%23%
Italy win 18%37%35%10%
Draw 10%26%37%28%
Turkey win 5%16%29%49%

๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท Turkey

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand4%13%26%57%
Italy win 2%6%20%71%
Draw 4%16%29%52%
Turkey win 8%27%38%26%

League A ยท Group 1

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
France 0 0 2009 65% 22% 10% 3%
Belgium 0 0 1890 18% 34% 30% 18%
Italy 0 0 1866 13% 30% 34% 23%
Turkey 0 0 1780 4% 13% 26% 57%
Quarter-finals (1st, 2nd) Relegation play-off (3rd) Relegated to League B (4th)

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
ItalyStatTurkey
7-1-2Won-Drawn-Lost6-1-3
2.4Avg goals scored1.9
1.3Avg goals conceded1.5
1866Rating1780
#13World rank#24

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
ItalyStatTurkey
2Wins (3 meetings, 1 draw)0
2Last 3 meetings (1 draw)0
2.0Average goals0.67
Last meeting (Tue, Jun 4, 2024, Friendly): Italy 0–0 Turkey

Recent Results

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Italy

@ Bosnia & Herzegovina
Tue, Mar 31, 2026 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 67%
1–1
vs Northern Ireland
Thu, Mar 26, 2026 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 75%
2–0
vs Norway
Sun, Nov 16, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 55%
1–4
@ Moldova
Thu, Nov 13, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 89%
2–0
vs Israel
Tue, Oct 14, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 77%
3–0

๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท Turkey

vs USA
Fri, Jun 26, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 26%
3–2
vs Paraguay
Sat, Jun 20, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 44%
0–1
@ Australia
Sun, Jun 14, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 40%
0–2
@ Kosovo
Tue, Mar 31, 2026 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 54%
1–0
vs Romania
Thu, Mar 26, 2026 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 55%
1–0