UEFA Nations League · League A · Group 1 · Round 5
Thu, Nov 12, 2026 ยท 7:45 PM GMT

Italy vs France Prediction & Win Probability

France has a 49% chance to win, with a 28% chance of a draw.

Rating 1866 · World #13
Form: DWLWW
VS
Rating 2009 · World #3
Form: LLWWW
Model Probability
23%
49%
Draw 28%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 1 position, depending on this result

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Italy

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand13%30%34%23%
Italy win 31%32%25%11%
Draw 13%32%35%20%
France win 4%28%38%30%

๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand65%22%10%3%
Italy win 43%32%18%7%
Draw 60%25%12%3%
France win 78%16%4%1%

League A ยท Group 1

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
– France 0 0 2009 65% 22% 10% 3%
– Belgium 0 0 1890 18% 34% 30% 18%
– Italy 0 0 1866 13% 30% 34% 23%
– Turkey 0 0 1780 4% 13% 26% 57%
Quarter-finals (1st, 2nd) Relegation play-off (3rd) Relegated to League B (4th)

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
ItalyStatFrance
7-1-2Won-Drawn-Lost8-0-2
2.4Avg goals scored2.7
1.3Avg goals conceded1.1
1866Rating2009
#13World rank#3

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
ItalyStatFrance
1Wins (5 meetings, 0 draws)4
1Last 5 meetings (0 draws)4
1.4Average goals2.4
Last meeting (Sun, Nov 17, 2024, Nations League): Italy 1–3 France

Recent Results

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Italy

@ Bosnia & Herzegovina
Tue, Mar 31, 2026 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 67%
1–1
vs Northern Ireland
Thu, Mar 26, 2026 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 75%
2–0
vs Norway
Sun, Nov 16, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 55%
1–4
@ Moldova
Thu, Nov 13, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 89%
2–0
vs Israel
Tue, Oct 14, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 77%
3–0

๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France

vs England
Sat, Jul 18, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 43%
4–6
vs Spain
Tue, Jul 14, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 33%
0–2
vs Morocco
Thu, Jul 9, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 57%
2–0
@ Paraguay
Sat, Jul 4, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 74%
1–0
vs Sweden
Tue, Jun 30, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 74%
3–0