โ† Home / UEFA Nations League / Matchups / Belgium vs Italy
UEFA Nations League · League A · Group 1 · Round 6
Sun, Nov 15, 2026 ยท 7:45 PM GMT

Belgium vs Italy Prediction & Win Probability

Belgium has a 43% chance to win, with a 30% chance of a draw.

Rating 1890 · World #10
Form: LWDWD
VS
Rating 1866 · World #13
Form: DWLWW
Model Probability
43%
27%
Draw 30%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 1 position, depending on this result

๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช Belgium

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand18%34%30%18%
Belgium win 28%45%20%7%
Draw 14%34%33%19%
Italy win 8%19%42%32%

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Italy

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand13%30%34%23%
Belgium win 6%18%43%33%
Draw 12%32%34%21%
Italy win 24%46%21%9%

League A ยท Group 1

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
– France 0 0 2009 65% 22% 10% 3%
– Belgium 0 0 1890 18% 34% 30% 18%
– Italy 0 0 1866 13% 30% 34% 23%
– Turkey 0 0 1780 4% 13% 26% 57%
Quarter-finals (1st, 2nd) Relegation play-off (3rd) Relegated to League B (4th)

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
BelgiumStatItaly
4-5-1Won-Drawn-Lost7-1-2
2.5Avg goals scored2.4
1.0Avg goals conceded1.3
1890Rating1866
#10World rank#13

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
BelgiumStatItaly
1Wins (6 meetings, 1 draw)4
0Last 5 meetings (1 draw)4
1.17Average goals1.67
Last meeting (Thu, Nov 14, 2024, Nations League): Belgium 0–1 Italy

Recent Results

๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช Belgium

@ Spain
Fri, Jul 10, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 18%
1–2
@ USA
Tue, Jul 7, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 41%
4–1
vs Senegal
Wed, Jul 1, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 47%
2–2
@ New Zealand
Sat, Jun 27, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 70%
5–1
vs Iran
Sun, Jun 21, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 48%
0–0

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Italy

@ Bosnia & Herzegovina
Tue, Mar 31, 2026 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 67%
1–1
vs Northern Ireland
Thu, Mar 26, 2026 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 75%
2–0
vs Norway
Sun, Nov 16, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 55%
1–4
@ Moldova
Thu, Nov 13, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 89%
2–0
vs Israel
Tue, Oct 14, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 77%
3–0