Final Score: Rockets 105 - Heat 115
Saturday, February 28, 2026 at 3:30 PM ET

Rockets @ Heat

NBA model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Rockets
37-21 Rating 1681
Form: WLWWW
Model Probability
54%
46%
Projected margin: Miami Heat +0.3
Heat
31-29 Rating 1520
Form: WWWLL

Model Prediction Through Season

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Stat Rockets Heat
All-time wins 34 42
Last 5 meetings 1 4
Average points 100.8 101.2
Last meeting 102 98

Key Season Stats

Stat Rockets Heat
Games played 58 60
Avg points scored 114.7 119.9
Avg points conceded 109.1 117.2
Win percentage 64% 52%
Away win % / Home win % 55% 61%