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Premier League
Sat, Jan 23, 2027 · 3:00 PM GMT

Arsenal vs Newcastle Prediction & Win Probability

Arsenal has a 66% chance to win.

4-0-1 · Rating 2074
Form: LWWWW
VS
2-2-1 · Rating 1916
Form: WLDWD
Model Probability
66%
14%
Draw 20%

Model Prediction Through Season

Season Impact

Newcastle

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
Now <1%24.8%7.8%3.9%
If Win 1.1%32.4%9.6%2.4%
If Draw <1%24.7%9.4%2.6%
If Lose <1%21.3%8.0%4.3%

Arsenal

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
Now 41.5%96.2%1.6%<1%
If Win 42.8%97.9%1.0%<1%
If Draw 36.4%95.4%1.6%<1%
If Lose 30.3%93.1%2.6%<1%

Season Form Coming Into This Game

ArsenalStatNewcastle
5Games played5
1.6Avg goals scored1.8
0.8Avg goals conceded1.8
80% / 0% / 20%Win / Draw / Loss40% / 40% / 20%
100% Home win % / Away win % 50%

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
ArsenalStatNewcastle
22All-time wins (30 meetings, 3 draws)5
4Last 5 meetings (0 draws)1
1.8Average goals0.7
Last meeting (2026-04-25): Arsenal 1–0 Newcastle