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Manchester City vs Arsenal Prediction & Win Probability

Manchester City has a 36% chance to win.
Premier League
Sat, Jan 30, 2027 · 3:00 PM GMT
Premier League
Manchester City
7-0-3Rating 2031
Form: LLLWW
vs
Model Probability
36%
Draw 28%
36%
Premier League
Arsenal
9-0-1Rating 2091
Form: WWWWW

Model Prediction Through Season

Season Impact

Arsenal

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
Now 76.3%99.7%<1%<1%
If Win 86.0%99.8%<1%<1%
If Draw 77.0%99.6%<1%<1%
If Lose 69.5%99.4%<1%<1%

Manchester City

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
Now 11.7%91.1%3.9%<1%
If Win 18.0%94.2%2.8%<1%
If Draw 11.5%92.3%3.3%<1%
If Lose 5.1%88.7%4.6%<1%

Season Form Coming Into This Game

Manchester CityStatArsenal
10Games played10
2.1Avg goals scored1.5
1.3Avg goals conceded0.5
70% / 0% / 30%Win / Draw / Loss90% / 0% / 10%
80% Home win % / Away win % 80%

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Manchester CityStatArsenal
17All-time wins (33 meetings, 10 draws)6
1Last 5 meetings (3 draws)1
1.8Average goals1.1
Last meeting (2026-04-19): Manchester City 2–1 Arsenal