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Dortmund vs Freiburg Prediction & Win Probability

Dortmund has a 58% chance to win.
Bundesliga
Sat, Jan 16, 2027 · 2:30 PM GMT
Bundesliga
Dortmund
6-3-0Rating 1918
Form: WDWDD
vs
Model Probability
58%
Draw 23%
19%
Bundesliga
Freiburg
6-1-2Rating 1824
Form: WWLLW

Model Prediction Through Season

Season Impact

Freiburg

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now <1%50.8%17.0%<1%<1%
If Win 1.8%66.0%14.0%<1%<1%
If Draw 1.1%53.8%16.0%<1%<1%
If Lose <1%46.3%17.4%<1%<1%

Dortmund

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now 11.8%92.3%4.2%<1%<1%
If Win 14.2%95.2%2.6%<1%<1%
If Draw 8.7%90.9%5.3%<1%<1%
If Lose 6.7%86.2%6.5%<1%<1%

Season Form Coming Into This Game

DortmundStatFreiburg
9Games played9
1.8Avg goals scored2.2
0.8Avg goals conceded1.1
67% / 33% / 0%Win / Draw / Loss67% / 11% / 22%
80% Home win % / Away win % 50%

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
DortmundStatFreiburg
24All-time wins (31 meetings, 4 draws)3
4Last 5 meetings (1 draws)0
2.9Average goals0.7
Last meeting (2026-04-26): Dortmund 4–0 Freiburg