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UEFA Nations League · League A · Group 4 · Round 5
Sat, Nov 14, 2026 ยท 7:45 PM GMT

Portugal vs Denmark Prediction & Win Probability

Portugal has a 59% chance to win, with a 25% chance of a draw.

Rating 1961 · World #6
Form: WWWWL
VS
Rating 1829 · World #19
Form: WLWLD
Model Probability
59%
16%
Draw 25%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 4 position, depending on this result

๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น Portugal

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand100%<1%<1%<1%
Portugal win 100%<1%<1%<1%
Draw 100%<1%<1%<1%
Denmark win 97%3%<1%<1%

๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Denmark

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand<1%62%35%2%
Portugal win <1%52%44%4%
Draw <1%74%26%<1%
Denmark win 3%79%18%<1%

League A ยท Group 4

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
1 Portugal 4 12 1961 100% <1% <1% <1%
2 Denmark 4 6 1829 <1% 62% 35% 2%
3 Wales 4 3 1718 <1% 3% 29% 68%
4 Norway 4 3 1837 <1% 34% 36% 30%
Quarter-finals (1st, 2nd) Relegation play-off (3rd) Relegated to League B (4th)

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
PortugalStatDenmark
7-2-1Won-Drawn-Lost5-2-3
2.6Avg goals scored2.5
0.8Avg goals conceded1.5
1961Rating1829
#6World rank#19

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
PortugalStatDenmark
6Wins (8 meetings, 0 draws)2
4Last 5 meetings (0 draws)1
2.0Average goals1.25
Last meeting (Thu, Oct 1, 2026, Nations League): Denmark 2–4 Portugal