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UEFA Nations League · League A · Group 4 · Round 5
Sat, Nov 14, 2026 ยท 7:45 PM GMT

Portugal vs Denmark Prediction & Win Probability

Portugal has a 56% chance to win, with a 26% chance of a draw.

Rating 1942 · World #7
Form: LWDWD
VS
Rating 1830 · World #19
Form: DWLDW
Model Probability
56%
18%
Draw 26%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 4 position, depending on this result

๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น Portugal

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand58%25%12%4%
Portugal win 71%21%6%2%
Draw 51%28%14%6%
Denmark win 30%33%27%10%

๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Denmark

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand16%30%34%20%
Portugal win 7%30%38%25%
Draw 19%32%32%18%
Denmark win 40%31%21%8%

League A ยท Group 4

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
– Portugal 0 0 1942 58% 25% 12% 4%
– Norway 0 0 1848 22% 33% 30% 15%
– Denmark 0 0 1830 16% 30% 34% 20%
– Wales 0 0 1724 4% 11% 24% 61%
Quarter-finals (1st, 2nd) Relegation play-off (3rd) Relegated to League B (4th)

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
PortugalStatDenmark
5-3-2Won-Drawn-Lost5-3-2
2.3Avg goals scored2.4
1.0Avg goals conceded1.1
1942Rating1830
#7World rank#19

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
PortugalStatDenmark
5Wins (7 meetings, 0 draws)2
4Last 5 meetings (0 draws)1
1.71Average goals1.14
Last meeting (Sun, Mar 23, 2025, Nations League): Portugal 3–2 Denmark

Recent Results

๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น Portugal

vs Spain
Mon, Jul 6, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 24%
0–1
vs Croatia
Thu, Jul 2, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 45%
2–1
@ Colombia
Sat, Jun 27, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 36%
0–0
vs Uzbekistan
Tue, Jun 23, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 68%
5–0
vs D.R. Congo
Wed, Jun 17, 2026 · World Cup · Pre-match win chance 75%
1–1

๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Denmark

@ Czech Republic
Tue, Mar 31, 2026 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 44%
1–1
vs North Macedonia
Thu, Mar 26, 2026 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 70%
4–0
@ Scotland
Tue, Nov 18, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 45%
2–4
vs Belarus
Sat, Nov 15, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 86%
2–2
vs Greece
Sun, Oct 12, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 55%
3–1