Diamondbacks @ Padres

MLB model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Final Score: Diamondbacks 11 - Padres 4
Friday, September 25, 2026 at 9:40 PM ET
Arizona
Diamondbacks
85-74 Rating 1521
Form: WWWWW
11 – 4
Model Probability
43%
57%
Projected margin: San Diego Padres +0.5
San Diego
Padres
89-70 Rating 1550
Form: WWLWW

Model Prediction Through Season

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Stat Diamondbacks Padres
All-time wins 252 238
Last 5 meetings 3 2
Average runs 4.6 4.3
Last meeting 1 5

Key Season Stats

Stat Diamondbacks Padres
Games played 159 159
Avg runs scored 4.5 4.4
Avg runs conceded 4.4 4.1
Win percentage 53% 56%
Away win % / Home win % 51% 63%