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Premier League
Sat, Mar 13, 2027 · 3:00 PM GMT

Chelsea vs Arsenal Prediction & Win Probability

Arsenal has a 52% chance to win.

2-1-2 · Rating 1899
Form: LDLWW
VS
4-0-1 · Rating 2074
Form: LWWWW
Model Probability
22%
52%
Draw 25%

Model Prediction Through Season

Season Impact

Arsenal

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
Now 42.5%96.8%1.2%<1%
If Win 44.8%97.6%1.3%<1%
If Draw 38.7%95.4%1.6%<1%
If Lose 35.4%94.6%2.0%<1%

Chelsea

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
Now <1%17.1%6.4%5.2%
If Win <1%24.6%8.1%3.0%
If Draw <1%17.8%6.5%5.5%
If Lose <1%14.5%6.7%6.8%

Season Form Coming Into This Game

ChelseaStatArsenal
5Games played5
2.0Avg goals scored1.6
2.4Avg goals conceded0.8
40% / 20% / 40%Win / Draw / Loss80% / 0% / 20%
50% Home win % / Away win % 67%

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
ChelseaStatArsenal
12All-time wins (34 meetings, 9 draws)13
0Last 5 meetings (2 draws)3
1.4Average goals1.4
Last meeting (2026-09-06): Arsenal 2–1 Chelsea