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Ligue 1
Sun, May 16, 2027 · 4:00 PM BST

Marseille vs Lens Prediction & Win Probability

Lens has a 38% chance to win.

1-0-4 · Rating 1764
Form: LLLLW
VS
1-1-3 · Rating 1842
Form: LDLLW
Model Probability
34%
38%
Draw 28%

Model Prediction Through Season

Season Impact

Lens

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now 2.2%17.8%11.2%1.8%<1%
If Win 2.8%22.0%12.8%1.0%<1%
If Draw 2.0%17.5%9.2%1.6%<1%
If Lose 1.5%13.4%9.4%2.3%<1%

Marseille

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegationRelegation playoff
Now <1%4.1%3.4%10.2%3.7%
If Win <1%3.8%4.5%8.8%2.5%
If Draw <1%2.9%2.9%11.3%3.4%
If Lose <1%1.9%2.5%13.3%5.5%

Season Form Coming Into This Game

MarseilleStatLens
5Games played5
1.4Avg goals scored1.8
1.6Avg goals conceded1.8
20% / 0% / 80%Win / Draw / Loss20% / 20% / 60%
33% Home win % / Away win % 0%

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
MarseilleStatLens
8All-time wins (17 meetings, 2 draws)7
3Last 5 meetings (0 draws)2
1.5Average goals1.1
Last meeting (2026-01-24): Marseille 3–1 Lens