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UEFA Nations League · League C · Group 4 · Round 6
Mon, Nov 16, 2026 ยท 5:00 PM GMT

Estonia vs Bulgaria Prediction & Win Probability

Bulgaria has a 40% chance to win, with a 30% chance of a draw.

Rating 1428 · World #120
Form: DWDDW
VS
Rating 1505 · World #93
Form: WLDLW
Model Probability
30%
40%
Draw 30%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 4 position, depending on this result

๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ช Estonia

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand9%51%26%14%
Estonia win 25%73%2%<1%
Draw 5%69%23%4%
Bulgaria win <1%20%47%32%

๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฌ Bulgaria

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand5%29%40%26%
Estonia win <1%<1%50%50%
Draw <1%16%47%37%
Bulgaria win 12%62%26%<1%

League C ยท Group 4

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
1 Iceland 4 8 1591 84% 13% 3% <1%
2 Estonia 4 6 1428 9% 51% 26% 14%
3 Bulgaria 4 4 1505 5% 29% 40% 26%
4 Luxembourg 4 3 1454 2% 7% 31% 60%
Promoted to League B (1st) Promotion play-off (2nd)

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
EstoniaStatBulgaria
3-5-2Won-Drawn-Lost4-1-5
0.7Avg goals scored1.7
0.9Avg goals conceded2.0
1428Rating1505
#120World rank#93

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
EstoniaStatBulgaria
0Wins (1 meeting, 1 draw)0
0Last 1 meeting (1 draw)0
0.0Average goals0.0
Last meeting (Tue, Sep 29, 2026, Nations League): Bulgaria 0–0 Estonia