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UEFA Nations League · League C · Group 4 · Round 5
Fri, Nov 13, 2026 ยท 7:45 PM GMT

Bulgaria vs Iceland Prediction & Win Probability

Iceland has a 38% chance to win, with a 30% chance of a draw.

Rating 1514 · World #92
Form: WWWLL
VS
Rating 1581 · World #77
Form: LWDLL
Model Probability
31%
38%
Draw 30%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 4 position, depending on this result

๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฌ Bulgaria

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand25%32%27%16%
Bulgaria win 47%29%17%7%
Draw 23%33%28%16%
Iceland win 9%34%35%23%

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ธ Iceland

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand54%27%14%6%
Bulgaria win 30%36%23%11%
Draw 53%27%15%6%
Iceland win 73%19%6%2%

League C ยท Group 4

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Iceland 0 0 1581 54% 27% 14% 6%
Bulgaria 0 0 1514 25% 32% 27% 16%
Luxembourg 0 0 1473 16% 26% 32% 26%
Estonia 0 0 1410 6% 15% 27% 52%
Promoted to League B (1st) Promotion play-off (2nd) Ranking of 4th-placed teams (4th) Relegation play-off Relegated to League D

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
BulgariaStatIceland
3-0-7Won-Drawn-Lost3-1-6
1.6Avg goals scored1.8
2.5Avg goals conceded2.0
1514Rating1581
#92World rank#77

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
Bulgaria and Iceland haven't met since 2010.

Recent Results

๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฌ Bulgaria

@ Indonesia
Mon, Mar 30, 2026 · Fifa Series · Pre-match win chance 38%
1–0
@ Solomon Islands
Fri, Mar 27, 2026 · Fifa Series · Pre-match win chance 57%
10–2
vs Georgia
Tue, Nov 18, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 22%
2–1
@ Turkey
Sat, Nov 15, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 8%
0–2
@ Spain
Tue, Oct 14, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 2%
0–4

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ธ Iceland

@ Ukraine
Sun, Nov 16, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 13%
0–2
@ Azerbaijan
Thu, Nov 13, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 49%
2–0
vs France
Mon, Oct 13, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 5%
2–2
vs Ukraine
Fri, Oct 10, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 19%
3–5
@ France
Tue, Sep 9, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 4%
1–2