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UEFA Nations League · League C · Group 4 · Round 5
Fri, Nov 13, 2026 ยท 7:45 PM GMT

Bulgaria vs Iceland Prediction & Win Probability

Iceland has a 41% chance to win, with a 30% chance of a draw.

Rating 1505 · World #93
Form: WLDLW
VS
Rating 1591 · World #71
Form: DWWDL
Model Probability
29%
41%
Draw 30%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 4 position, depending on this result

๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฌ Bulgaria

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand5%29%40%26%
Bulgaria win 17%40%37%5%
Draw <1%27%44%29%
Iceland win <1%23%38%39%

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ธ Iceland

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand84%13%3%<1%
Bulgaria win 62%28%10%<1%
Draw 84%15%1%<1%
Iceland win 98%2%<1%<1%

League C ยท Group 4

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
1 Iceland 4 8 1591 84% 13% 3% <1%
2 Estonia 4 6 1428 9% 51% 26% 14%
3 Bulgaria 4 4 1505 5% 29% 40% 26%
4 Luxembourg 4 3 1454 2% 7% 31% 60%
Promoted to League B (1st) Promotion play-off (2nd)

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
BulgariaStatIceland
4-1-5Won-Drawn-Lost4-3-3
1.7Avg goals scored2.0
2.0Avg goals conceded1.2
1505Rating1591
#93World rank#71

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
BulgariaStatIceland
0Wins (1 meeting, 0 draws)1
0Last 1 meeting (0 draws)1
0.0Average goals3.0
Last meeting (Sat, Oct 3, 2026, Nations League): Iceland 3–0 Bulgaria