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UEFA Nations League · League C · Group 4 · Round 6
Mon, Nov 16, 2026 ยท 5:00 PM GMT

Iceland vs Luxembourg Prediction & Win Probability

Iceland has a 55% chance to win, with a 26% chance of a draw.

Rating 1581 · World #77
Form: LWDLL
VS
Rating 1473 · World #100
Form: WWLLL
Model Probability
55%
18%
Draw 26%

Group Impact

Chance of finishing in each Group 4 position, depending on this result

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ธ Iceland

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand54%27%14%6%
Iceland win 66%24%8%2%
Draw 45%29%17%8%
Luxembourg win 26%33%27%14%

๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡บ Luxembourg

Scenario1st2nd3rd4th
As things stand16%26%32%26%
Iceland win 7%25%36%32%
Draw 17%27%32%23%
Luxembourg win 40%29%21%11%

League C ยท Group 4

#Team P Pts Rating 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
– Iceland 0 0 1581 54% 27% 14% 6%
– Bulgaria 0 0 1514 25% 32% 27% 16%
– Luxembourg 0 0 1473 16% 26% 32% 26%
– Estonia 0 0 1410 6% 15% 27% 52%
Promoted to League B (1st) Promotion play-off (2nd) Ranking of 4th-placed teams (4th) Relegation play-off Relegated to League D

Form Coming Into This Game

Last 10 internationals in any competition
IcelandStatLuxembourg
3-1-6Won-Drawn-Lost2-1-7
1.8Avg goals scored0.8
2.0Avg goals conceded1.6
1581Rating1473
#77World rank#100

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings (all internationals since 2010)
IcelandStatLuxembourg
0Wins (2 meetings, 1 draw)1
0Last 2 meetings (1 draw)1
1.0Average goals2.0
Last meeting (Fri, Oct 13, 2023, Euro): Iceland 1–1 Luxembourg

Recent Results

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ธ Iceland

@ Ukraine
Sun, Nov 16, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 13%
0–2
@ Azerbaijan
Thu, Nov 13, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 49%
2–0
vs France
Mon, Oct 13, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 5%
2–2
vs Ukraine
Fri, Oct 10, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 19%
3–5
@ France
Tue, Sep 9, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 4%
1–2

๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡บ Luxembourg

vs Malta
Tue, Mar 31, 2026 · Nations League · Pre-match win chance 62%
3–0
@ Malta
Thu, Mar 26, 2026 · Nations League · Pre-match win chance 48%
2–0
@ Northern Ireland
Mon, Nov 17, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 16%
0–1
vs Germany
Fri, Nov 14, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 4%
0–2
@ Slovakia
Mon, Oct 13, 2025 · World Cup qualifier · Pre-match win chance 9%
0–2