Final Score: Phillies 4 - Braves 3
Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET
Phillies @ Braves
MLB model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Model Prediction Through Season
| Stat | Phillies | Braves |
|---|---|---|
| All-time wins | 404 | 446 |
| Last 5 meetings | 2 | 3 |
| Average runs | 4.2 | 4.6 |
| Last meeting | 3 | 5 |
| Stat | Phillies | Braves |
|---|---|---|
| Games played | 163 | 163 |
| Avg runs scored | 4.4 | 4.6 |
| Avg runs conceded | 4.3 | 3.9 |
| Win percentage | 54% | 58% |
| Away win % / Home win % | 55% | 65% |
Recent Results
Phillies
@ Atlanta Braves
Sep 29, 2026 · Margin: -2 · Total: 8
3-5
vs Tampa Bay Rays
Sep 27, 2026 · Margin: +4 · Total: 10
7-3
vs Tampa Bay Rays
Sep 26, 2026 · Margin: -11 · Total: 13
1-12
vs Tampa Bay Rays
Sep 25, 2026 · Margin: -2 · Total: 2
0-2
vs Milwaukee Brewers
Sep 24, 2026 · Margin: -4 · Total: 6
1-5
vs Milwaukee Brewers
Sep 23, 2026 · Margin: -3 · Total: 5
1-4
vs Milwaukee Brewers
Sep 22, 2026 · Margin: +2 · Total: 10
6-4
@ New York Mets
Sep 20, 2026 · Margin: +5 · Total: 9
7-2
@ New York Mets
Sep 19, 2026 · Margin: -7 · Total: 13
3-10
@ New York Mets
Sep 18, 2026 · Margin: -3 · Total: 9
3-6
Braves
vs Philadelphia Phillies
Sep 29, 2026 · Margin: +2 · Total: 8
5-3
@ Miami Marlins
Sep 27, 2026 · Margin: -2 · Total: 8
3-5
@ Miami Marlins
Sep 26, 2026 · Margin: +5 · Total: 11
8-3
@ Miami Marlins
Sep 25, 2026 · Margin: -3 · Total: 3
0-3
vs Cincinnati Reds
Sep 24, 2026 · Margin: -1 · Total: 13
6-7
vs Cincinnati Reds
Sep 23, 2026 · Margin: +1 · Total: 5
3-2
vs Cincinnati Reds
Sep 22, 2026 · Margin: -4 · Total: 4
0-4
@ Houston Astros
Sep 20, 2026 · Margin: +2 · Total: 6
4-2
@ Houston Astros
Sep 19, 2026 · Margin: +3 · Total: 9
6-3
@ Houston Astros
Sep 18, 2026 · Margin: +4 · Total: 8
6-2