Rays @ Phillies

MLB model probabilities, projected margin and matchup analysis
Final Score: Rays 3 - Phillies 7
Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 3:05 PM ET
Tampa Bay
Rays
98-63 Rating 1549
Form: WLLWW
3 – 7
Model Probability
47%
53%
Projected margin: Philadelphia Phillies +0.2
Philadelphia
Phillies
87-74 Rating 1544
Form: WLLLL

Model Prediction Through Season

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
Stat Rays Phillies
All-time wins 25 25
Last 5 meetings 2 3
Average runs 4.3 4.4
Last meeting 12 1

Key Season Stats

Stat Rays Phillies
Games played 161 161
Avg runs scored 4.6 4.4
Avg runs conceded 4.0 4.3
Win percentage 61% 54%
Away win % / Home win % 54% 52%