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Premier League
Sun, Jan 3, 2027 · 2:00 PM GMT

Chelsea vs Newcastle Prediction & Win Probability

Chelsea has a 42% chance to win.

2-1-2 · Rating 1899
Form: LDLWW
VS
2-2-1 · Rating 1916
Form: WLDWD
Model Probability
42%
31%
Draw 28%

Model Prediction Through Season

Season Impact

Newcastle

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
Now <1%23.6%8.8%4.3%
If Win 1.2%31.4%9.5%1.4%
If Draw <1%23.0%8.7%3.9%
If Lose <1%17.4%6.9%5.8%

Chelsea

Scenario Win LeagueChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
Now <1%17.7%7.3%6.0%
If Win <1%21.6%8.5%3.7%
If Draw <1%15.6%5.7%5.8%
If Lose <1%11.7%5.5%8.3%

Season Form Coming Into This Game

ChelseaStatNewcastle
5Games played5
2.0Avg goals scored1.8
2.4Avg goals conceded1.8
40% / 20% / 40%Win / Draw / Loss40% / 40% / 20%
50% Home win % / Away win % 50%

Head-to-Head

Historical record and recent meetings
ChelseaStatNewcastle
15All-time wins (30 meetings, 5 draws)10
2Last 5 meetings (1 draws)2
1.6Average goals1.2
Last meeting (2026-03-14): Chelsea 0–1 Newcastle